PREDICT User's Manual

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a Near Real Time Range Safety Analysis Tool named PREDICT that is based upon a probabilistic range safety analysis process. Probabilistic calculations of risk may be used in place of the total containment of potentially hazardous debris during a missile launch operation. Impact probabilities are computed based upon probabilistic density functions, Monte Carlo trajectories of dispersion events, and missile failure scenarios. Impact probabilities are then coupled with current demographics (land populations, commercial and military ship traffic, and aircraft traffic) to produce expected casualty predictions for a particular launch window. Historically, these calculations required days of ... continued below

Physical Description

52 pages

Creation Information

Young, Larry W. & Sturgis, Beverly R. July 1, 2002.

Context

This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this report or its content.

Sponsor

Publisher

  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

Provided By

UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Serving as both a federal and a state depository library, the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department maintains millions of items in a variety of formats. The department is a member of the FDLP Content Partnerships Program and an Affiliated Archive of the National Archives.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this report. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Description

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a Near Real Time Range Safety Analysis Tool named PREDICT that is based upon a probabilistic range safety analysis process. Probabilistic calculations of risk may be used in place of the total containment of potentially hazardous debris during a missile launch operation. Impact probabilities are computed based upon probabilistic density functions, Monte Carlo trajectories of dispersion events, and missile failure scenarios. Impact probabilities are then coupled with current demographics (land populations, commercial and military ship traffic, and aircraft traffic) to produce expected casualty predictions for a particular launch window. Historically, these calculations required days of computer time to finalize. Sandia has developed a process that utilizes the IBM SP machines at the Maui High Performance Computing Center and at the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center to reduce the computation time from days to as little as an hour or two. This analysis tool then allows the Missile Flight Safety Officer to make launch decisions based on the latest information (winds, ship, and aircraft movements) utilizing an intelligent risk management approach. This report provides a user's manual for PREDICT version 3.3.

Physical Description

52 pages

Source

  • Other Information: PBD: 1 Jul 2002

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this report in the Digital Library or other systems.

  • Report No.: SAND2002-2398
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/801394 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 801394
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc742083

Collections

This report is part of the following collection of related materials.

Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

What responsibilities do I have when using this report?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this report.

Creation Date

  • July 1, 2002

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Oct. 19, 2015, 7:39 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • April 12, 2016, 5:03 p.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this report last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 2

Interact With This Report

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Citations, Rights, Re-Use

Young, Larry W. & Sturgis, Beverly R. PREDICT User's Manual, report, July 1, 2002; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc742083/: accessed November 19, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.