New Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs

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This report describes LBNL's approach for assessing uncertainty in any National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)-related analysis. Based on years of experience using LBNL-NEMS for various analyses, LBNL developed an alternative approach that aims to provide a simple yet comprehensive perspective of how the results behave under a given set of what we believe to be some of the issues important to large-scale energy modeling. This project has established a standard set of eight sensitivity cases that can be run overnight and are highly likely to produce stable and interesting results. The goal was to establish a limited number of interesting ... continued below

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Gumerman, Etan Z.; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi & Marnay, Chris October 1, 2002.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

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Description

This report describes LBNL's approach for assessing uncertainty in any National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)-related analysis. Based on years of experience using LBNL-NEMS for various analyses, LBNL developed an alternative approach that aims to provide a simple yet comprehensive perspective of how the results behave under a given set of what we believe to be some of the issues important to large-scale energy modeling. This project has established a standard set of eight sensitivity cases that can be run overnight and are highly likely to produce stable and interesting results. The goal was to establish a limited number of interesting sensitivity cases that would routinely produce adjunct results to LBNL-NEMS reporting that will be of value to our readers. These cases will be routinely reported together with future LBNL-NEMS results in the form of a standard output table. As an example, this work uses a Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) analysis run as the baseline, but th e goal is to establish a standardized set of cases that would change little over time and be applicable to other analyses in addition to GPRA. The approach developed here cannot serve as a substitute for a sensitivity analysis tailored to the question at hand, but it can provide a fast review of some areas that have proven to be of interest in the past.

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OSTI as DE00816362

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  • Other Information: PBD: 1 Oct 2002

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  • Report No.: LBNL--52399
  • Grant Number: AC03-76SF00098
  • DOI: 10.2172/816362 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 816362
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc738521

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  • October 1, 2002

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Oct. 18, 2015, 6:40 p.m.

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  • April 4, 2016, 3:30 p.m.

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Gumerman, Etan Z.; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi & Marnay, Chris. New Method and Reporting of Uncertainty in LBNL National Energy Modeling System Runs, report, October 1, 2002; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc738521/: accessed September 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.