Dynamic Simulation Model of the National Security Consequences from Energy Supply Disruptions

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Description

Recent terrorist attacks in the United States have increased concerns about potential national security consequences from energy supply disruptions. The purpose of this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) is to develop a high-level dynamic simulation model that would allow policy makers to explore the national security consequences of major US. energy supply disruptions, and to do so in a way that would integrate energy, economic and environmental components. The model allows exploration of potential combinations of demand-driven energy supplies that meet chosen policy objectives, including: Mitigating economic losses, measured in national economic output and employment levels, due to terrorist ... continued below

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42 pages

Creation Information

MALCZYNSKI, LEONARD A.; PAANANEN, ORMAN H.; HARRIS, DAVID B.; BAKER, ARNOLD B. & ERICKSON, JON D. November 1, 2002.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

Recent terrorist attacks in the United States have increased concerns about potential national security consequences from energy supply disruptions. The purpose of this Laboratory Directed Research & Development (LDRD) is to develop a high-level dynamic simulation model that would allow policy makers to explore the national security consequences of major US. energy supply disruptions, and to do so in a way that would integrate energy, economic and environmental components. The model allows exploration of potential combinations of demand-driven energy supplies that meet chosen policy objectives, including: Mitigating economic losses, measured in national economic output and employment levels, due to terrorist activity or forced outages of the type seen in California; Control of greenhouse gas levels and growth rates; and Moderating US. energy import requirements. This work has built upon the Sandia US. Energy and greenhouse Gas Model (USEGM) by integrating a macroeconomic input-output framework into the model, adding the capability to assess the potential economic impact of energy supply disruptions and the associated national security issues. The economic impacts of disruptions are measured in terms of lost US. output (e.g., GDP, sectoral output) and lost employment, and are assessed either at a broad sectoral level (3 sectors) or at a disaggregated level (52 sectors). In this version of the model, physical energy disruptions result in quantitative energy shortfalls, and energy prices are not permitted to rise to clear the markets.

Physical Description

42 pages

Source

  • Other Information: PBD: 1 Nov 2002

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  • Report No.: SAND2002-3738
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/809602 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 809602
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc737208

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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Creation Date

  • November 1, 2002

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Oct. 18, 2015, 6:40 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • April 12, 2016, 3:41 p.m.

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MALCZYNSKI, LEONARD A.; PAANANEN, ORMAN H.; HARRIS, DAVID B.; BAKER, ARNOLD B. & ERICKSON, JON D. Dynamic Simulation Model of the National Security Consequences from Energy Supply Disruptions, report, November 1, 2002; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc737208/: accessed December 14, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.