PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF THE TRUDOCK CRANE SYSTEM AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (WIPP)

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This probabilistic analysis of WIPP TRUDOCK crane failure is based on two sources of failure data. The source for operator errors is the report by Swain and Guttman, NUREG/CR-1278-F, August 1983. The source for crane cable hook breaks was initially made by WIPP/WID-96- 2196, Rev. O by using relatively old (1970s) U.S. Navy data (NUREG-0612). However, a helpful analysis by R.K. Deremer of PLG guided the authors to values that were more realistic and more conservative, with the recommendation that the crane cable/hook failure rate should be 2.5 x 10-6 per demand. This value was adopted and used. Based on ... continued below

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Greenfield, M.A. & Sargent, T.J. May 1, 2000.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 11 times . More information about this report can be viewed below.

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Description

This probabilistic analysis of WIPP TRUDOCK crane failure is based on two sources of failure data. The source for operator errors is the report by Swain and Guttman, NUREG/CR-1278-F, August 1983. The source for crane cable hook breaks was initially made by WIPP/WID-96- 2196, Rev. O by using relatively old (1970s) U.S. Navy data (NUREG-0612). However, a helpful analysis by R.K. Deremer of PLG guided the authors to values that were more realistic and more conservative, with the recommendation that the crane cable/hook failure rate should be 2.5 x 10-6 per demand. This value was adopted and used. Based on these choices a mean failure rate of 9.70 x 10-3(1/yr) was calculated. However, a mean rate by itself does not reveal the level of confidence to be associated with this number. Guidance to making confidence calculations came from the report by Swain and Guttman, who stated that failure data could be described by lognormal distributions. This is in agreement with the widely use d reports (by DOE and others) NPRD-95 and NPRD-91, on failure data. The calculations of confidence levels showed that the mean failure rate of 9.70x 10-3(1/yr) corresponded to a percentile value of approximately 71; i.e. there is a 71% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 9.70x 10-3(1/yr). One also calculated that there is a 95% likelihood that the failure rate is less than 29.6x 10-3(1/yr). Or, as stated previously, there is a 71% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in 103 years. Also, there is a 95% likelihood that not more than one dropped load will occur in approximately 34 years. It is the responsibility of DOE to select the confidence level at which it desires to operate.

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Medium: P; Size: vp.

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INIS; OSTI as DE00769587

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  • Other Information: Supercedes report DE00769587; PBD: 1 May 2000

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  • Report No.: EEG-74
  • Report No.: DOE/AL/58309
  • Grant Number: AC04-89AL58309
  • DOI: 10.2172/769587 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 769587
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc719965

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Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • May 1, 2000

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 29, 2015, 5:31 a.m.

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  • March 30, 2016, 5:54 p.m.

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Greenfield, M.A. & Sargent, T.J. PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF THE TRUDOCK CRANE SYSTEM AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (WIPP), report, May 1, 2000; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc719965/: accessed November 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.