Are Net Discount Ratios Stationary?: The Implications For Present Value Calculations

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Article discussing research analyzing the relationship between real interest rates and real growth rates in wages.

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8 p.

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Haslag, Joseph H.; Nieswiadomy, Michael L. & Slottje, Daniel J. September 1991.

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Article discussing research analyzing the relationship between real interest rates and real growth rates in wages.

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8 p.

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Reprinted with permission from the Editor of the Journal of Risk and Insurance.

Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and real growth rates in wages. The stationary of these time series has been discussed in the literature. However, since the net discount ratio, (1 + gτ)/(1 + rτ), is a nonlinear transformation, it is not necessarily stationary even if the interest rate and growth rate in wages series are each stationary. On the other hand, the net discount ratio may be stationary even if the interest rate and growth rate series are both non-stationary. The significant finding of this article is that this ratio is stationary. This conclusion appears robust since it holds for at least four different Treasury securities analyzed: three month, six month, one year, and three year. Therefore, a real net discount ratio, (1 + gτ)/(1 + rτ), can be used with confidence in constructing present value forecasts of expected earnings.

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  • Journal of Risk and Insurance, 1991, Malvern: American Risk and Insurance Association

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  • Publication Title: Journal of Risk and Insurance
  • Volume: LVIII
  • Issue: 3
  • Page Start: 505
  • Page End: 512
  • Pages: 8
  • Peer Reviewed: Yes

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  • September 1991

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  • Jan. 31, 2012, 10:30 a.m.

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  • May 12, 2014, 12:23 p.m.

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Haslag, Joseph H.; Nieswiadomy, Michael L. & Slottje, Daniel J. Are Net Discount Ratios Stationary?: The Implications For Present Value Calculations, article, September 1991; [Malvern, Pennsylvania]. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc71790/: accessed November 17, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT College of Arts and Sciences.