LANL'S DEVELOPMENT OF SCHEDULE CONTINGENCY BASED ON PROBABILISTIC RISK RESULTS

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The need for budget reserve in project planning is widely recognized, but the need for a corresponding schedule reserve is generally not as universally acknowledged. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) performs probabilistic project risk analyses for all major projects; the question has become how to more fully use the results of the schedule analyses to establish a schedule reserve. Before the use of quantitative project risk analysis, milestones were based on the initial point estimate with float time as the only time reserved for delays. With this practice, the set of tasks that have duration reserve is limited. In particular, ... continued below

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HOUGHTON, F. K.; KINDINGER, J. P. & AL, ET March 1, 2001.

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The need for budget reserve in project planning is widely recognized, but the need for a corresponding schedule reserve is generally not as universally acknowledged. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) performs probabilistic project risk analyses for all major projects; the question has become how to more fully use the results of the schedule analyses to establish a schedule reserve. Before the use of quantitative project risk analysis, milestones were based on the initial point estimate with float time as the only time reserved for delays. With this practice, the set of tasks that have duration reserve is limited. In particular, critical path tasks, which do not have associated float, do not have reserve schedule time to use for delays. For other tasks, float was used on a ''first-come, first-served'' basis without allocation to other tasks. Thus, it was not possible to systematically allocate schedule reserve to project tasks.

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219 Kilobytes pages

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-01-1778
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 776830
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc716004

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  • March 1, 2001

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  • Sept. 29, 2015, 5:31 a.m.

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  • March 29, 2016, 7:55 p.m.

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HOUGHTON, F. K.; KINDINGER, J. P. & AL, ET. LANL'S DEVELOPMENT OF SCHEDULE CONTINGENCY BASED ON PROBABILISTIC RISK RESULTS, article, March 1, 2001; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc716004/: accessed August 18, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.