Cost of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update

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Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate ... continued below

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Greene, D.L. & Tishchishyna, N.I. May 1, 2000.

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Description

Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports.

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INIS; OSTI as DE00763234

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  • Other Information: PBD: 1 May 2000

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  • Report No.: ORNL/TM-2000/152
  • Grant Number: AC05-00OR22725
  • DOI: 10.2172/763234 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 763234
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc715870

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  • May 1, 2000

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 29, 2015, 5:31 a.m.

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  • Jan. 19, 2016, 12:10 p.m.

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Greene, D.L. & Tishchishyna, N.I. Cost of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, report, May 1, 2000; Tennessee. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc715870/: accessed August 21, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.