Application of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methods to a Validation Study for Weapons-Grade Mixed-Oxide Fuel

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At the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis methods and a Generalized Linear Least-Squares Methodology (GLLSM) have been developed to quantitatively determine the similarity or lack thereof between critical benchmark experiments and an application of interest. The S/U and GLLSM methods provide a mathematical approach, which is less judgment based relative to traditional validation procedures, to assess system similarity and estimate the calculational bias and uncertainty for an application of interest. The objective of this paper is to gain experience with the S/U and GLLSM methods by revisiting a criticality safety evaluation and associated traditional validation ... continued below

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Dunn, M.E. July 20, 2001.

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At the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis methods and a Generalized Linear Least-Squares Methodology (GLLSM) have been developed to quantitatively determine the similarity or lack thereof between critical benchmark experiments and an application of interest. The S/U and GLLSM methods provide a mathematical approach, which is less judgment based relative to traditional validation procedures, to assess system similarity and estimate the calculational bias and uncertainty for an application of interest. The objective of this paper is to gain experience with the S/U and GLLSM methods by revisiting a criticality safety evaluation and associated traditional validation for the shipment of weapons-grade (WG) MOX fuel in the MO-1 transportation package. In the original validation, critical experiments were selected based on a qualitative assessment of the MO-1 and MOX contents relative to the available experiments. Subsequently, traditional trending analyses were used to estimate the {Delta}k bias and associated uncertainty. In this paper, the S/U and GLLSM procedures are used to re-evaluate the suite of critical experiments associated with the original MO-1 evaluation. Using the S/U procedures developed at ORNL, critical experiments that are similar to the undamaged and damaged MO-1 package are identified based on sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the criticals and the MO-1 package configurations. Based on the trending analyses developed for the S/U and GLLSM procedures, the {Delta}k bias and uncertainty for the most reactive MO-1 package configurations are estimated and used to calculate an upper subcritical limit (USL) for the MO-1 evaluation. The calculated bias and uncertainty from the S/U and GLLSM analyses lead to a calculational USL that supports the original validation study for the MO-1.

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  • 2001 ANS Embedded Topical Meeting on Practical Implementation of Nuclear Criticality Safety, Reno, NV (US), 11/11/2001--11/15/2001

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  • Report No.: P01-111333
  • Grant Number: AC05-00OR22725
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 788580
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc715429

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  • July 20, 2001

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 29, 2015, 5:31 a.m.

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  • March 30, 2016, 12:10 p.m.

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Dunn, M.E. Application of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methods to a Validation Study for Weapons-Grade Mixed-Oxide Fuel, article, July 20, 2001; Tennessee. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc715429/: accessed December 14, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.