Future market for ceramics in vehicle engines and their impacts Page: 3 of 23
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FUTURE MARKET FOR CERAMICS IN VEHICLE ENGINES AND THEIR IMPACTS
ANANT VYAS, FRANK STODOLSKY,* AND DONALD HANSON
CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH
ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY
9700 SOUTH CASS AVENUE, ARGONNE, IL 60439
Ceramic engine components have potential to improve vehicle fuel economy. Some recent tests have also
shown their environmental benefits, particularly in reducing particulate emissions in heavy-duty diesel
engines. We used the data from a survey of the U.S. vehicle engine and component manufacturers relating to
ceramic engine components to develop a set of market penetration models. The survey identified promising
ceramic components and provided data on the timing of achieving introductory shares in light- and heavy-duty
markets. Some ceramic components will penetrate the market when the pilot-scale costs are reduced to one-
fifth of their current values, and many more will enter the market when the costs are reduced to one-tenth of
the current values. An ongoing ceramics research program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy has
the goal of achieving such price reductions. The size and value of the future ceramic components market and
the impacts of this market in terms of fuel savings, reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, and potential
reduction in other criteria pollutants are presented. The future ceramic components market will be 9 million
components worth $29 million within 5 years of introduction and will expand to 692 million components
worth $3,484 million within 20 years. The projected annual energy savings are 3.8 trillion Btu by 5 years,
increasing to 526 trillion Btu during the twentieth year. These energy savings will reduce carbon dioxide
emissions by 41 million tons during the twentieth year. Ceramic components will help reduce particulate
emissions by 100 million tons in 2030 and save the nation's urban areas $152 million. The paper presents
the analytical approach and discusses other economic impacts.
The U.S. Government supports materials and technology research in areas that are high-risk in nature and
where the benefits to be derived are far in the future. The government's role is to identify, investigate, and
enable new technologies to maintain U.S. leadership among the industrialized nations and enhance
competitiveness of U.S. industry. Not only do these research efforts identify new materials and technologies,
they also build a firm foundation for future economic growth. Economic and environmental impacts of a
research program are rated high among the criteria for allocating scarce research funds.
The Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT) within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds
research to develop technolgies that promise to reduce oil consumption by improving vehicle fuel efficiency
and allowing the substitution of alternative fuels. The Office of Transportation Materials (OTM), within
OTT, supports a ceramic materials research program aimed at advancing the use of structural ceramics in
vehicle engines. The program, conducted in cooperation with industry, was initiated in part on the basis of
the results of a preliminary economic assessment conducted by the Center for Transportation Research (CTR)
at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). This assessment by Johnson et al.  estimated that the ceramic
program will have considerable impacts on the U.S. economy. The DOE research program accelerated the
development of a ceramic technology base that was evident in the results of a second technical and economic
assessment (Larsen and Vyas  and Larsen et al. ).
0 Argonne National Laboratory, 955 LEnfant Plaza North, S.W., Suite 6000, Washington, DC 20024
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Vyas, A.; Hanson, D. & Stodolsky, F. Future market for ceramics in vehicle engines and their impacts, article, February 1995; Illinois. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc712101/m1/3/: accessed November 13, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.