Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

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The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized ... continued below

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47 p.

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HELTON,JON CRAIG; DAVIS,FREDDIE J. & JOHNSON,J.D. May 19, 2000.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.

Physical Description

47 p.

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE00755472

Medium: P; Size: 47 pages

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  • Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue); Other Information: Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)

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  • Report No.: SAND99-1882J
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 755472
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc711436

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Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • May 19, 2000

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • April 12, 2017, 6:53 p.m.

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HELTON,JON CRAIG; DAVIS,FREDDIE J. & JOHNSON,J.D. Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, article, May 19, 2000; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc711436/: accessed October 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.