The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.

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Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings ... continued below

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16 p.

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Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D. & Vyas, A. D. December 8, 1999.

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Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.

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16 p.

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OSTI as DE00750495

Medium: P; Size: 16 pages

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  • 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC (US), 01/09/2000--01/13/2000

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  • Report No.: ANL/ES/CP-99917
  • Grant Number: W-31-109-ENG-38
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 750495
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc711109

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  • December 8, 1999

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • April 7, 2017, 3:18 p.m.

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Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D. & Vyas, A. D. The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success., article, December 8, 1999; Illinois. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc711109/: accessed September 25, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.