Uncertainty analysis in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

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The appropriate treatment of uncertainty is now widely recognized as an essential component of performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems. When viewed at a high-level, the uncertainty in such analyses can typically be partitioned into two types: (1) stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system can behave in many different ways and is thus a property of the system itself, and (2) subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities that are believed to have (or, at least, are assumed to have) fixed values and is thus a property of the analysts carrying out the study. The ... continued below

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7 p.

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Helton, J.C.; Anderson, D.R.; Jow, H.N.; Marietta, M.G. & Basabilvazo, G. July 1, 1998.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

The appropriate treatment of uncertainty is now widely recognized as an essential component of performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems. When viewed at a high-level, the uncertainty in such analyses can typically be partitioned into two types: (1) stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system can behave in many different ways and is thus a property of the system itself, and (2) subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities that are believed to have (or, at least, are assumed to have) fixed values and is thus a property of the analysts carrying out the study. The 1996 PA for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) carried out at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will be used to illustrate the treatment of these two types of uncertainty in a real analysis. In particular, this PA supported a compliance certification application (CCA) by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the geologic disposal of transuranic waste. Insights on the conceptual and computational structure of PAs for complex systems gained from these and other analyses are being incorporated into a new software system under development at SNL to facilitate the performance of analyses that maintain a separation between stochastic and subjective uncertainty.

Physical Description

7 p.

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE98002957

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  • International conference on probabilistic safety assessment and management (PSAM4), New York, NY (United States), 13-18 Sep 1998

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  • Other: DE98002957
  • Report No.: SAND--98-0983C
  • Report No.: CONF-980907--
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 656529
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc704824

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • July 1, 1998

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • June 14, 2016, 1:11 p.m.

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Helton, J.C.; Anderson, D.R.; Jow, H.N.; Marietta, M.G. & Basabilvazo, G. Uncertainty analysis in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, article, July 1, 1998; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc704824/: accessed December 13, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.