Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/9: De-Alerting Strategic Ballistic Missiles

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This paper presents a framework for evaluating the technical merits of strategic ballistic missile de-alerting measures, and it uses the framework to evaluate a variety of possible measures for silo-based, land-mobile, and submarine-based missiles. De-alerting measures are defined for the purpose of this paper as reversible actions taken to increase the time or effort required to launch a strategic ballistic missile. The paper does not assess the desirability of pursuing a de-alerting program. Such an assessment is highly context dependent. The paper postulates that if de-alerting is desirable and is used as an arms control mechanism, de-alerting measures should satisfy ... continued below

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Medium: P; Size: 54 Pages

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Connell, Leonard W.; Edenburn, Michael W.; Fraley, Stanley K. & Trost, Lawrence C. March 1, 1999.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

This paper presents a framework for evaluating the technical merits of strategic ballistic missile de-alerting measures, and it uses the framework to evaluate a variety of possible measures for silo-based, land-mobile, and submarine-based missiles. De-alerting measures are defined for the purpose of this paper as reversible actions taken to increase the time or effort required to launch a strategic ballistic missile. The paper does not assess the desirability of pursuing a de-alerting program. Such an assessment is highly context dependent. The paper postulates that if de-alerting is desirable and is used as an arms control mechanism, de-alerting measures should satisfy specific cirteria relating to force security, practicality, effectiveness, significant delay, and verifiability. Silo-launched missiles lend themselves most readily to de-alerting verification, because communications necessary for monitoring do not increase the vulnerabilty of the weapons by a significant amount. Land-mobile missile de-alerting measures would be more challenging to verify, because monitoring measures that disclose the launcher's location would potentially increase their vulnerability. Submarine-launched missile de-alerting measures would be extremely challlenging if not impossible to monitor without increasing the submarine's vulnerability.

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Medium: P; Size: 54 Pages

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  • Other: DE00006985
  • Report No.: SAND98-0505/9
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/6985 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 6985
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc703164

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

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  • March 1, 1999

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • Dec. 9, 2016, 7:53 p.m.

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Connell, Leonard W.; Edenburn, Michael W.; Fraley, Stanley K. & Trost, Lawrence C. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/9: De-Alerting Strategic Ballistic Missiles, report, March 1, 1999; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc703164/: accessed December 11, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.