Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs

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In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that ... continued below

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Bott, T. F. & Butner, J. M. August 22, 1999.

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In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that combines logic models with qualitative and possibility metrics provides an excellent tool for incorporating safety concerns rapidly and effectively into a conceptual design evaluation.

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OSTI as DE00757315

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  • Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment - PSA '99, Washington, DC (US), 08/22/1999--08/25/1999

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-99-1259
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 757315
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc702365

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  • August 22, 1999

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  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • Feb. 29, 2016, 7:13 p.m.

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Bott, T. F. & Butner, J. M. Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs, article, August 22, 1999; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc702365/: accessed August 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.