Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

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This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been ... continued below

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90 p.

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Glantz, M. H.; Moore, C. M.; Streets, D. G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C. H. & Stewart, T. R. January 1998.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

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Description

This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.

Physical Description

90 p.

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE98004576

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  • Other Information: PBD: Jan 1998

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  • Other: DE98004576
  • Report No.: ANL/DIS/TM--46
  • Grant Number: W-31109-ENG-38
  • DOI: 10.2172/666195 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 666195
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc702059

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  • January 1998

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  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • Dec. 15, 2015, 12:17 p.m.

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Glantz, M. H.; Moore, C. M.; Streets, D. G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C. H. & Stewart, T. R. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change, report, January 1998; Illinois. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc702059/: accessed September 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.