Alternative measures of potential predictability applied to ensemble simulations of seasonal land-surface climate Metadata

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Title

  • Main Title Alternative measures of potential predictability applied to ensemble simulations of seasonal land-surface climate

Creator

  • Author: Phillips, Thomas J.
    Creator Type: Personal

Contributor

  • Sponsor: United States. Department of Energy.
    Contributor Type: Organization
    Contributor Info: USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

Publisher

  • Name: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
    Place of Publication: California
    Additional Info: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

Date

  • Creation: 1996-12-01

Language

  • English

Description

  • Content Description: The potential predictability (PP) of seasonal climate at the land surface is of enormous human import, and therefore merits close investigation. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable may be defined as the upper bound in mean forecast to be expected when the seasonal state of the oceans is known precisely (as when SST`s are prescribed), but when the initial conditions are known imprecisely. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable is related to its degree of insensitivity to the choice of initial conditions when the ocean boundary conditions are invariant. There are various ways of measuring this initial-condition insensitivity, two of which are utilized here. The PP of a seasonal mean variable can be estimated from an ensemble of repeated simulations of a mul period in which the ocean boundary conditions are the same, but in which the initial conditions of the model`s land/atmosphere system are different. It should be noted that a truly accurate determination of PP following this approach requires use of a perfect model. Estimates of PP made with current generation models there fore must be regarded as quite imprecise.
  • Physical Description: 7 p.

Subject

  • Keyword: Surfaces
  • Keyword: Seas
  • Keyword: Seasonal Variations
  • Keyword: Earth Atmosphere
  • Keyword: Weather
  • Keyword: Climate Models
  • STI Subject Categories: 54 Environmental Sciences

Source

  • Conference: 21. annual climate diagnostics and prediction workshop, Huntsville, AL (United States), 28 Oct - 1 Nov 1996

Collection

  • Name: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports
    Code: OSTI

Institution

  • Name: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
    Code: UNTGD

Resource Type

  • Article

Format

  • Text

Identifier

  • Other: DE98051564
  • Report No.: UCRL-JC--126018
  • Report No.: CONF-9610349--
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 598883
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc696081

Note

  • Display Note: OSTI as DE98051564
  • Display Note: Other: FDE: PDF; PL:
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