Alternative measures of potential predictability applied to ensemble simulations of seasonal land-surface climate

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The potential predictability (PP) of seasonal climate at the land surface is of enormous human import, and therefore merits close investigation. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable may be defined as the upper bound in mean forecast to be expected when the seasonal state of the oceans is known precisely (as when SST`s are prescribed), but when the initial conditions are known imprecisely. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable is related to its degree of insensitivity to the choice of initial conditions when the ocean boundary conditions are invariant. There are various ways of measuring this initial-condition insensitivity, ... continued below

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7 p.

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Phillips, T.J. December 1, 1996.

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Description

The potential predictability (PP) of seasonal climate at the land surface is of enormous human import, and therefore merits close investigation. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable may be defined as the upper bound in mean forecast to be expected when the seasonal state of the oceans is known precisely (as when SST`s are prescribed), but when the initial conditions are known imprecisely. The PP of a seasonal land-surface variable is related to its degree of insensitivity to the choice of initial conditions when the ocean boundary conditions are invariant. There are various ways of measuring this initial-condition insensitivity, two of which are utilized here. The PP of a seasonal mean variable can be estimated from an ensemble of repeated simulations of a mul period in which the ocean boundary conditions are the same, but in which the initial conditions of the model`s land/atmosphere system are different. It should be noted that a truly accurate determination of PP following this approach requires use of a perfect model. Estimates of PP made with current generation models there fore must be regarded as quite imprecise.

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7 p.

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OSTI as DE98051564

Other: FDE: PDF; PL:

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  • 21. annual climate diagnostics and prediction workshop, Huntsville, AL (United States), 28 Oct - 1 Nov 1996

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  • Other: DE98051564
  • Report No.: UCRL-JC--126018
  • Report No.: CONF-9610349--
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 598883
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc696081

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  • December 1, 1996

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  • Aug. 14, 2015, 8:43 a.m.

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  • April 6, 2017, 6:01 p.m.

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Phillips, T.J. Alternative measures of potential predictability applied to ensemble simulations of seasonal land-surface climate, article, December 1, 1996; California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc696081/: accessed October 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.