Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model Page: 3 of 14
This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided to UNT Digital Library by the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.
Extracted Text
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
Analysis of Market Penetration Scenarios of Clean Coal
Technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model
Alan Lamont
Lamont1@llnI.gov
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore, California, USA
Abstract
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration
of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The
analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market
penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies
in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a
distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The
prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the
means of these distributions: sometime the effective price is greater than this
and sometimes it is less. Thus even a relatively expensive technology may
cost less than its competitors in a fraction of the transactions. Using several
scenarios about the possible dispersion of prices, we estimate the market share
of CCTs over the next 50 years. We find that some CCTs penetrate under all
scenarios, but the more expensive ones only show significant penetration
when larger values of price dispersion are assumed. Generally the
penetration of the CCTs is 15% or less of the market by 2020. However,
advanced pulverized coal does exceed 15% in some cases.
Introduction
The energy system in China relies heavily on coal for both heating and
electric generation. Within the electric sector, a large portion of the installed
capacity is of relatively older design with lower efficiencies and higher
emissions than more modern technologies. A number of "clean coal
technologies" (CCT) have been developed which have both high efficiencies
and relatively low emissions of sulfur and particulates. Introducing these
CCTs to the Chinese market could reduce emissions of carbon, sulfur and
particulates. However, it is not clear to what extent they might penetrate the
market and reduce emissions.
This paper reports the results of a study of CCT market penetration that
was done using the China Energy Model developed at the Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The model accounts for market
penetration based on the relative prices of competing technologies. However,8/17/98
1
Upcoming Pages
Here’s what’s next.
Search Inside
This report can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Report.
Lamont, A. Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model, report, August 17, 1998; Livermore, California. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc687148/m1/3/: accessed April 19, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.