Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model

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This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the means of these distributions: ... continued below

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Lamont, A August 17, 1998.

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Description

This paper presents the results of an analysis of the market penetration of Clean Coal Technologies in the electric utility market in China. The analysis is based on a model of the Chinese energy system developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Under this model, the market penetration of a technology depends on the relative prices of all technologies in a market. The model assumes that for each technology there is a distribution of effective prices to the consumers in the market place. The prices for each technology computed in the model are assumed to be the means of these distributions: sometime the effective price is greater than this and sometimes it is less. Thus even a relatively expensive technology may cost less than its competitors in a fraction of the transactions. Using several scenarios about the possible dispersion of prices, we estimate the market share of CCTs over the next 50 years. We find that some CCTs penetrate under all scenarios, but the more expensive ones only show significant penetration when larger values of price dispersion are assumed. Generally the penetration of the CCTs is 15% or less of the market by 2020. However, advanced pulverized coal does exceed 15% in some cases.

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710 Kilobytes

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  • Other: DE00003622
  • Report No.: UCRL-ID-131690
  • Grant Number: W-7405-Eng-48
  • DOI: 10.2172/3622 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 3622
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc687148

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • August 17, 1998

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  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • Feb. 24, 2016, 3:45 p.m.

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Lamont, A. Analysis of market penetration scenarios of clean coal technologies in China using the LLNL China Energy Model, report, August 17, 1998; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc687148/: accessed December 12, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.