Considerations in missile reductions and de-alerting

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Description

Earlier analyses assumed that all survivable forces could withstand first strikes and retaliate. Only those on alert, at sea, or capable of launching under attack meet that assumption. The sensitivity of those results to non-alert forces is discussed. Reduced alert rates decrease stability indices, primarily by reducing second strikes. Survivable, mobile Russian ICBMs could increase both sides stability. Dealerting hastens expected reductions and raises the possibility of abuse. And the low-force goal of arms reductions has some poorly understood and awkward attributes.

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[75] p.

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Canavan, G.H. April 1, 1998.

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Description

Earlier analyses assumed that all survivable forces could withstand first strikes and retaliate. Only those on alert, at sea, or capable of launching under attack meet that assumption. The sensitivity of those results to non-alert forces is discussed. Reduced alert rates decrease stability indices, primarily by reducing second strikes. Survivable, mobile Russian ICBMs could increase both sides stability. Dealerting hastens expected reductions and raises the possibility of abuse. And the low-force goal of arms reductions has some poorly understood and awkward attributes.

Physical Description

[75] p.

Notes

OSTI as DE99000651

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  • World Federation of Scientists working group on missile proliferation and defense, Erice (Italy), 5-8 Apr 1998

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  • Other: DE99000651
  • Report No.: LA-UR--98-1426
  • Report No.: CONF-980488--
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 296625
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc686638

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  • April 1, 1998

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • Feb. 29, 2016, 1:40 p.m.

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Canavan, G.H. Considerations in missile reductions and de-alerting, article, April 1, 1998; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc686638/: accessed September 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.