Routine inspection effort required for verification of a nuclear material production cutoff convention

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Description

Preliminary estimates of the inspection effort to verify a Nuclear Material Cutoff Convention are presented. The estimates are based on (1) a database of about 650 facilities a total of eight states, i.e., the five nuclear-weapons states and three ``threshold`` states; (2) typical figures for inspection requirements for specific facility types derived from IAEA experience, where applicable; and (3) alternative estimates of inspection effort in cutoff options where full IAEA safeguards are not stipulated. Considerable uncertainty must be attached to the effort estimates. About 50--60% of the effort for each option is attributable to 16 large-scale reprocessing plants assumed to ... continued below

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14 p.

Creation Information

Fishbone, L.G. & Sanborn, J. December 1, 1994.

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Description

Preliminary estimates of the inspection effort to verify a Nuclear Material Cutoff Convention are presented. The estimates are based on (1) a database of about 650 facilities a total of eight states, i.e., the five nuclear-weapons states and three ``threshold`` states; (2) typical figures for inspection requirements for specific facility types derived from IAEA experience, where applicable; and (3) alternative estimates of inspection effort in cutoff options where full IAEA safeguards are not stipulated. Considerable uncertainty must be attached to the effort estimates. About 50--60% of the effort for each option is attributable to 16 large-scale reprocessing plants assumed to be in operation in the eight states; it is likely that some of these will be shut down by the time the convention enters into force. Another important question involving about one third of the overall effort is whether Euratom inspections in France and the U.K. could obviate the need for full-scale IAEA inspections at these facilities. Finally, the database does not yet contain many small-scale and military-related facilities. The results are therefore not presented as predictions but as the consequences of alternative assumptions. Despite the preliminary nature of the estimates, it is clear that a broad application of NPT-like safeguards to the eight states would require dramatic increases in the IAEA`s safeguards budget. It is also clear that the major component of the increased inspection effort would occur at large reprocessing plants (and associated plutonium facilities). Therefore, significantly bounding the increased effort requires a limitation on the inspection effort in these facility types.

Physical Description

14 p.

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE95007309

Medium: P; Size: 14 p.

Source

  • Other Information: PBD: Dec 1994

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  • Other: DE95007309
  • Report No.: BNL--61304
  • Grant Number: AC02-76CH00016
  • DOI: 10.2172/31704 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 31704
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc686044

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • December 1, 1994

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • April 7, 2017, 2:47 p.m.

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Fishbone, L.G. & Sanborn, J. Routine inspection effort required for verification of a nuclear material production cutoff convention, report, December 1, 1994; Upton, New York. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc686044/: accessed January 22, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.