Prediction and Uncertainty in Computational Modeling of Complex Phenomena: A Whitepaper

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Description

This report summarizes some challenges associated with the use of computational science to predict the behavior of complex phenomena. As such, the document is a compendium of ideas that have been generated by various staff at Sandia. The report emphasizes key components of the use of computational to predict complex phenomena, including computational complexity and correctness of implementations, the nature of the comparison with data, the importance of uncertainty quantification in comprehending what the prediction is telling us, and the role of risk in making and using computational predictions. Both broad and more narrowly focused technical recommendations for research are ... continued below

Physical Description

44 p.

Creation Information

Trucano, T.G. January 20, 1999.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

This report summarizes some challenges associated with the use of computational science to predict the behavior of complex phenomena. As such, the document is a compendium of ideas that have been generated by various staff at Sandia. The report emphasizes key components of the use of computational to predict complex phenomena, including computational complexity and correctness of implementations, the nature of the comparison with data, the importance of uncertainty quantification in comprehending what the prediction is telling us, and the role of risk in making and using computational predictions. Both broad and more narrowly focused technical recommendations for research are given. Several computational problems are summarized that help to illustrate the issues we have emphasized. The tone of the report is informal, with virtually no mathematics. However, we have attempted to provide a useful bibliography that would assist the interested reader in pursuing the content of this report in greater depth.

Physical Description

44 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE00003503

Medium: P; Size: 44 pages

Source

  • Other Information: PBD: 20 Jan 1999

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  • Report No.: SAND98-2776
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/3503 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 3503
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc684940

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  • January 20, 1999

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • April 12, 2017, 4:41 p.m.

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Trucano, T.G. Prediction and Uncertainty in Computational Modeling of Complex Phenomena: A Whitepaper, report, January 20, 1999; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc684940/: accessed September 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.