System reliability assessment with an approximate reasoning model

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Description

The projected service life of weapons in the US nuclear stockpile will exceed the original design life of their critical components. Interim metrics are needed to describe weapon states for use in simulation models of the nuclear weapons complex. The authors present an approach to this problem based upon the theory of approximate reasoning (AR) that allows meaningful assessments to be made in an environment where reliability models are incomplete. AR models are designed to emulate the inference process used by subject matter experts. The emulation is based upon a formal logic structure that relates evidence about components. This evidence ... continued below

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[30] p.

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Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Helm, T. M. & Boerigter, S. T. December 1998.

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  • Los Alamos National Laboratory
    Publisher Info: Los Alamos National Lab., Technology and Safety Assessment Div., NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: New Mexico

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Description

The projected service life of weapons in the US nuclear stockpile will exceed the original design life of their critical components. Interim metrics are needed to describe weapon states for use in simulation models of the nuclear weapons complex. The authors present an approach to this problem based upon the theory of approximate reasoning (AR) that allows meaningful assessments to be made in an environment where reliability models are incomplete. AR models are designed to emulate the inference process used by subject matter experts. The emulation is based upon a formal logic structure that relates evidence about components. This evidence is translated using natural language expressions into linguistic variables that describe membership in fuzzy sets. The authors introduce a metric that measures the acceptability of a weapon to nuclear deterrence planners. Implication rule bases are used to draw a series of forward chaining inferences about the acceptability of components, subsystems and individual weapons. They describe each component in the AR model in some detail and illustrate its behavior with a small example. The integration of the acceptability metric into a prototype model to simulate the weapons complex is also described.

Physical Description

[30] p.

Notes

OSTI as DE99001236

Source

  • International conference and workshop on reliability and risk management, San Antonio, TX (United States), 15-18 Sep 1998

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  • Other: DE99001236
  • Report No.: LA-UR--98-2453
  • Report No.: CONF-980965--
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 303958
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc683731

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Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • December 1998

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • Feb. 25, 2016, 4:40 p.m.

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Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Helm, T. M. & Boerigter, S. T. System reliability assessment with an approximate reasoning model, article, December 1998; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc683731/: accessed December 16, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.