Evaluating the risk of industrial espionage

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Description

A methodology for estimating the relative probabilities of different compromise paths for protected information by insider and visitor intelligence collectors has been developed based on an event-tree analysis of the intelligence collection operation. The analyst identifies target information and ultimate users who might attempt to gain that information. The analyst then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability estimates indicate the relative likelihood of different compromise paths and provide an ... continued below

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20 p.

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Bott, T.F. December 31, 1998.

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Description

A methodology for estimating the relative probabilities of different compromise paths for protected information by insider and visitor intelligence collectors has been developed based on an event-tree analysis of the intelligence collection operation. The analyst identifies target information and ultimate users who might attempt to gain that information. The analyst then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability estimates indicate the relative likelihood of different compromise paths and provide an input for security resource allocation. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models specifically addressing this example espionage problem are developed. The probability models for hard-copy information compromise paths are quantified as an illustration of the results using parametric values representative of historical data available in secure facilities, supplemented where necessary by expert judgment.

Physical Description

20 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE99002267

Source

  • 1999 annual reliability and maintainability symposium, Washington, DC (United States), 18-21 Jan 1999

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  • Other: DE99002267
  • Report No.: LA-UR--98-3117
  • Report No.: CONF-990120--
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 334272
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc683647

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Creation Date

  • December 31, 1998

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • May 20, 2016, 2:48 p.m.

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Bott, T.F. Evaluating the risk of industrial espionage, article, December 31, 1998; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc683647/: accessed September 26, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.