Relating aviation service difficulty reports to accident data for safety trend prediction

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Description

A synthetic model of scheduled-commercial U.S. aviation fatalities was constructed from linear combinations of the time-spectra of critical systems reporting using 5.5 years of Service Difficulty Reports (SDR){sup 2} and Accident Incident Data System (AIDS) records{sup 3}. This model, used to predict near-future trends in aviation accidents, was tested by using the first 36 months of data to construct the synthetic model which was used to predict fatalities during the following eight months. These predictions were tested by comparison with the fatality data. A reliability block diagram (RBD) and third-order extrapolations also were used as predictive models and compared with ... continued below

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6 p.

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Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Uryasev, S. & Sampath, S.G. October 1, 1996.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 29 times . More information about this report can be viewed below.

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Description

A synthetic model of scheduled-commercial U.S. aviation fatalities was constructed from linear combinations of the time-spectra of critical systems reporting using 5.5 years of Service Difficulty Reports (SDR){sup 2} and Accident Incident Data System (AIDS) records{sup 3}. This model, used to predict near-future trends in aviation accidents, was tested by using the first 36 months of data to construct the synthetic model which was used to predict fatalities during the following eight months. These predictions were tested by comparison with the fatality data. A reliability block diagram (RBD) and third-order extrapolations also were used as predictive models and compared with actuality. The synthetic model was the best predictor because of its use of systems data. Other results of the study are a database of service difficulties for major aviation systems, and a rank ordering of systems according to their contribution to the synthesis. 4 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

Physical Description

6 p.

Notes

OSTI as TI96014560

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  • International topical meeting on probabilistic safety assessment - moving toward risk based regulation, Park City, UT (United States), 29 Sep - 3 Oct 1996

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  • Other: TI96014560
  • Report No.: BNL--63259
  • Report No.: CONF-960912--35
  • Grant Number: AC02-76CH00016
  • DOI: 10.2172/379088 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 379088
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc681998

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  • October 1, 1996

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  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • Nov. 9, 2015, 10:15 p.m.

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Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Uryasev, S. & Sampath, S.G. Relating aviation service difficulty reports to accident data for safety trend prediction, report, October 1, 1996; Upton, New York. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc681998/: accessed September 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.