Approaches to implementing deterministic models in a probabilistic framework

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The increasing use of results from probabilistic risk assessments in the decision-making process makes it ever more important to eliminate simplifications in probabilistic models that might lead to conservative results. One area in which conservative simplifications are often made is modeling the physical interactions that occur during the progression of an accident sequence. This paper demonstrates and compares different approaches for incorporating deterministic models of physical parameters into probabilistic models; parameter range binning, response curves, and integral deterministic models. An example that combines all three approaches in a probabilistic model for the handling of an energetic material (i.e. high explosive, ... continued below

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8 p.

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Talbott, D.V. April 1, 1995.

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Description

The increasing use of results from probabilistic risk assessments in the decision-making process makes it ever more important to eliminate simplifications in probabilistic models that might lead to conservative results. One area in which conservative simplifications are often made is modeling the physical interactions that occur during the progression of an accident sequence. This paper demonstrates and compares different approaches for incorporating deterministic models of physical parameters into probabilistic models; parameter range binning, response curves, and integral deterministic models. An example that combines all three approaches in a probabilistic model for the handling of an energetic material (i.e. high explosive, rocket propellant,...) is then presented using a directed graph model.

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8 p.

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OSTI as DE95009483

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  • Joint American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)/Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME) pressure vessels and piping conference, Honolulu, HI (United States), 23-27 Jul 1995

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  • Other: DE95009483
  • Report No.: LA-UR--95-1117
  • Report No.: CONF-950740--21
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 46425
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc681675

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

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  • April 1, 1995

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  • July 25, 2015, 2:21 a.m.

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  • Feb. 25, 2016, 1:24 p.m.

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Talbott, D.V. Approaches to implementing deterministic models in a probabilistic framework, article, April 1, 1995; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc681675/: accessed December 16, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.