Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits

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Description

The consequence models used in former studies of costs and benefits of enhanced safety retrofits are considered for (1) fuel fires; (2) non-nuclear detonations; and, (3) unintended nuclear detonations. Estimates of consequences were made using a representative accident location, i.e., an assumed mixed suburban-rural site. We have explicitly quantified land- use impacts and human-health effects (e.g. , prompt fatalities, prompt injuries, latent cancer fatalities, low- levels of radiation exposure, and clean-up areas). Uncertainty in the wind direction is quantified and used in a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate a range of results for a fuel fire with uncertain respirable amounts ... continued below

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47 p.; Other: FDE: PDF; PL:

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Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C. & Stephens, D.R. January 1, 1998.

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Description

The consequence models used in former studies of costs and benefits of enhanced safety retrofits are considered for (1) fuel fires; (2) non-nuclear detonations; and, (3) unintended nuclear detonations. Estimates of consequences were made using a representative accident location, i.e., an assumed mixed suburban-rural site. We have explicitly quantified land- use impacts and human-health effects (e.g. , prompt fatalities, prompt injuries, latent cancer fatalities, low- levels of radiation exposure, and clean-up areas). Uncertainty in the wind direction is quantified and used in a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate a range of results for a fuel fire with uncertain respirable amounts of released Pu. We define a nuclear source term and discuss damage levels of concern. Ranges of damages are estimated by quantifying health impacts and property damages. We discuss our dispersal and prompt effects models in some detail. The models used to loft the Pu and fission products and their particle sizes are emphasized.

Physical Description

47 p.; Other: FDE: PDF; PL:

Notes

OSTI as DE98057745

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  • Other Information: PBD: 1 Jan 1998

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  • Other: DE98057745
  • Report No.: UCRL-ID--129902
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • DOI: 10.2172/304632 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 304632
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc676117

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  • January 1, 1998

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  • July 25, 2015, 2:20 a.m.

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  • Feb. 23, 2016, 4:02 p.m.

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Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C. & Stephens, D.R. Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits, report, January 1, 1998; California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc676117/: accessed December 15, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.