Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

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It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type ... continued below

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8 p.

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DeMuth, S. F. & Franklin, A. L. August 7, 1996.

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Description

It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.

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8 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE96014662

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  • Waste Management `97, Tucson, AZ (United States), 2-7 Mar 1997

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  • Other: DE96014662
  • Report No.: LA-UR--96-2786
  • Report No.: CONF-970335--1
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 446355
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc675610

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • August 7, 1996

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:21 a.m.

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  • June 14, 2016, 5:32 p.m.

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DeMuth, S. F. & Franklin, A. L. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity, article, August 7, 1996; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc675610/: accessed June 22, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.