Value of information analysis - Nevada test site

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This paper presents an innovative use of decision analysis to perform a Value of Information Analysis that compares the cost of acquiring environmental information during a corrective action investigation with a benefit. The benefit has been defined as the percent reduction in the uncertainty of a groundwater plume boundary. The decision analysis incorporates many of the detailed elements of flow and transport modeling with some simplification. The decision model uses the flow and transport model to calculate the plume boundary, defined as the 95 percent confidence level for a 4 millirem/year organ dose, to evaluate the benefit not only of ... continued below

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12 p.

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McNulty, G.; Deshler, B. & Dove, H. April 1, 1997.

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Description

This paper presents an innovative use of decision analysis to perform a Value of Information Analysis that compares the cost of acquiring environmental information during a corrective action investigation with a benefit. The benefit has been defined as the percent reduction in the uncertainty of a groundwater plume boundary. The decision analysis incorporates many of the detailed elements of flow and transport modeling with some simplification. The decision model uses the flow and transport model to calculate the plume boundary, defined as the 95 percent confidence level for a 4 millirem/year organ dose, to evaluate the benefit not only of various field data acquisition and analysis tasks, but also the importance of uncertainties in the conceptual flow model. The results indicate that vertical flow, not the currently assumed horizontal flow model, may actually control the site characterization effort for the corrective action unit in question. Furthermore, the results indicate that a sizeable investment on the order of several millions of dollars is required to either resolve the likelihood of a vertical flux to the highly conductive carbonate aquifer or improve the uncertainty in the plume boundary associated with horizontal flow by only a few percent. If the new information shows that a vertical flux to the carbonate aquifer actually does exist, the boundary location may change significantly and extend well into the carbonate aquifer. The likelihood of resolving the presence or absence of this important pathway can be increased with expenditures similar to those expected for the major uncertainty reductions in the source term and minor ones in the horizontal flux.

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12 p.

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OSTI as DE97004041

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  • Waste Management `97, Tucson, AZ (United States), 2-7 Mar 1997

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  • Other: DE97004041
  • Report No.: CONF-970335--37
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 456363
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc675286

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • April 1, 1997

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  • July 25, 2015, 2:21 a.m.

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  • Dec. 4, 2015, 8:40 p.m.

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McNulty, G.; Deshler, B. & Dove, H. Value of information analysis - Nevada test site, article, April 1, 1997; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc675286/: accessed December 11, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.