Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come ... continued below

Physical Description

Medium: P; Size: 138 p.

Creation Information

Kandlikar, M. December 1, 1994.

Context

This thesis or dissertation is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 13 times . More information about this document can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this thesis or dissertation or its content.

Author

Sponsor

Provided By

UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Serving as both a federal and a state depository library, the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department maintains millions of items in a variety of formats. The department is a member of the FDLP Content Partnerships Program and an Affiliated Archive of the National Archives.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this thesis or dissertation. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Description

In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

Physical Description

Medium: P; Size: 138 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE97005243

Source

  • Other Information: TH: Thesis (Ph.D.)

Language

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this document in the Digital Library or other systems.

  • Other: DE97005243
  • Report No.: DOE/ER/61916--T1
  • Grant Number: FG02-94ER61916
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 464182
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc674768

Collections

This document is part of the following collection of related materials.

Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

What responsibilities do I have when using this thesis or dissertation?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this thesis or dissertation.

Creation Date

  • December 1, 1994

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • July 25, 2015, 2:21 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Nov. 5, 2015, 3 p.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this document last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 13

Interact With This Thesis Or Dissertation

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

International Image Interoperability Framework

IIF Logo

We support the IIIF Presentation API

Kandlikar, M. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change, thesis or dissertation, December 1, 1994; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc674768/: accessed September 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.