On the risk criterion and the index of risk

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The development of a means to quantify risk, the determination of a risk criterion, and the establishment of a method to compare risks are three essential components in a probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan and Garrick is converted from a table to a graph to accommodate Farmer`s method of constructing a risk criterion. Farmer`s criterion is limited to a straight line, but its slope is made a free parameter. The high-frequency small-consequence problem noted by Farmer is solved by using an auxiliary vertical line to exclude scenarios with insignificant consequences. To ... continued below

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15 p.

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Wang, J. C.; Johnson, R. O. & Lee, D. W. June 10, 1996.

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Description

The development of a means to quantify risk, the determination of a risk criterion, and the establishment of a method to compare risks are three essential components in a probabilistic safety assessment. In this paper, the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan and Garrick is converted from a table to a graph to accommodate Farmer`s method of constructing a risk criterion. Farmer`s criterion is limited to a straight line, but its slope is made a free parameter. The high-frequency small-consequence problem noted by Farmer is solved by using an auxiliary vertical line to exclude scenarios with insignificant consequences. To compare risks associated with various accident scenarios, an index of risk relative to the straight-line risk criterion is proposed and developed. The results allow various accident scenarios to be ranked according to their weighted risks and, in turn, provide a measure of the effectiveness of mitigation.

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15 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE96011943

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  • International topical meeting on probabilistic safety assessment - moving toward risk based regulation, Park City, UT (United States), 29 Sep - 3 Oct 1996

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  • Other: DE96011943
  • Report No.: CONF-960912--23
  • Grant Number: AC05-96OR22464
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 272529
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc671818

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • June 10, 1996

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  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • Nov. 24, 2015, 6:39 p.m.

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Wang, J. C.; Johnson, R. O. & Lee, D. W. On the risk criterion and the index of risk, article, June 10, 1996; Tennessee. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc671818/: accessed December 15, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.