Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

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Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less ... continued below

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5 p.

Creation Information

Boak, D.M. & Painton, L. December 8, 1995.

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This article is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this article can be viewed below.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

Physical Description

5 p.

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE96004301

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  • 7. annual international high-level radioactive waste management conference, Las Vegas, NV (United States), 29 Apr - 3 May 1996

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  • Other: DE96004301
  • Report No.: SAND--95-3056C
  • Report No.: CONF-960421--2
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 204111
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc670707

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  • December 8, 1995

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • April 14, 2016, 9:09 p.m.

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Boak, D.M. & Painton, L. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework, article, December 8, 1995; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc670707/: accessed September 19, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.