Probabilistic modeling of propagating explosions

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Description

Weapons containing significant quantities of high explosives (HE) are sometimes located in close proximity to one another. If an explosion occurs in a weapon, the possibility of propagation to one or more additional weapons may exist, with severe consequences possibly resulting. In the general case, a system of concern consists of multiple weapons and various other objects in a complex, three-dimensional geometry. In each weapon, HE is enclosed by (casing) materials that function as protection in the event of a neighbor detonation but become a source of fragments if the HE is initiated. The protection afforded by the casing means ... continued below

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7 p.

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Luck, L.B.; Eisenhawer, S.W. & Bott, T.F. March 1, 1996.

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Description

Weapons containing significant quantities of high explosives (HE) are sometimes located in close proximity to one another. If an explosion occurs in a weapon, the possibility of propagation to one or more additional weapons may exist, with severe consequences possibly resulting. In the general case, a system of concern consists of multiple weapons and various other objects in a complex, three-dimensional geometry. In each weapon, HE is enclosed by (casing) materials that function as protection in the event of a neighbor detonation but become a source of fragments if the HE is initiated. The protection afforded by the casing means that only high-momentum fragments, which occur rarely, are of concern. These fragments, generated in an initial donor weapon are transported to other weapons either directly or by ricochet. Interaction of a fragment with an acceptor weapon can produce a reaction in the acceptor HE and result in a second detonation. In this paper we describe a comprehensive methodology to estimate the probability of various consequences for fragment-induced propagating detonations in arrays of weapons containing HE. Analysis of this problem requires an approach that can both define the circumstances under which rare events can occur and calculate the probability of such occurrences. Our approach is based on combining process tree methodology with Monte Carlo transport simulation. Our Monte Carlo technique very effectively captures important features of these differences. Process tree methodology is described and its use is discussed for a simplified problem and to illustrate the power of Monte Carlo simulation in estimating fragment-induced detonation of an acceptor weapon.

Physical Description

7 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE96007188

Source

  • 3. international conference on probabilistic safety assessment and management, Crete (Greece), 24-28 Jun 1996

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  • Other: DE96007188
  • Report No.: LA-UR--96-0039
  • Report No.: CONF-960647--5
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 219244
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc670217

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  • March 1, 1996

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  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • Feb. 29, 2016, 7:04 p.m.

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Luck, L.B.; Eisenhawer, S.W. & Bott, T.F. Probabilistic modeling of propagating explosions, article, March 1, 1996; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc670217/: accessed August 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.