Handling uncertainty in quantitative estimates in integrated resource planning

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

This report addresses uncertainty in Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). IRP is a planning and decisionmaking process employed by utilities, usually at the behest of Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), to develop plans to ensure that utilities have resources necessary to meet consumer demand at reasonable cost. IRP has been used to assist utilities in developing plans that include not only traditional electricity supply options but also demand-side management (DSM) options. Uncertainty is a major issue for IRP. Future values for numerous important variables (e.g., future fuel prices, future electricity demand, stringency of future environmental regulations) cannot ever be known with certainty. ... continued below

Physical Description

107 p.

Creation Information

Tonn, B.E. & Wagner, C.G. January 1, 1995.

Context

This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this report or its content.

Authors

  • Tonn, B.E. Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)
  • Wagner, C.G. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Mathematics

Sponsor

Publisher

Provided By

UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Serving as both a federal and a state depository library, the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department maintains millions of items in a variety of formats. The department is a member of the FDLP Content Partnerships Program and an Affiliated Archive of the National Archives.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this report. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Description

This report addresses uncertainty in Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). IRP is a planning and decisionmaking process employed by utilities, usually at the behest of Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), to develop plans to ensure that utilities have resources necessary to meet consumer demand at reasonable cost. IRP has been used to assist utilities in developing plans that include not only traditional electricity supply options but also demand-side management (DSM) options. Uncertainty is a major issue for IRP. Future values for numerous important variables (e.g., future fuel prices, future electricity demand, stringency of future environmental regulations) cannot ever be known with certainty. Many economically significant decisions are so unique that statistically-based probabilities cannot even be calculated. The entire utility strategic planning process, including IRP, encompasses different types of decisions that are made with different time horizons and at different points in time. Because of fundamental pressures for change in the industry, including competition in generation, gone is the time when utilities could easily predict increases in demand, enjoy long lead times to bring on new capacity, and bank on steady profits. The purpose of this report is to address in detail one aspect of uncertainty in IRP: Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Estimates, such as the future demand for electricity or the cost to produce a mega-watt (MW) of power. A theme which runs throughout the report is that every effort must be made to honestly represent what is known about a variable that can be used to estimate its value, what cannot be known, and what is not known due to operational constraints. Applying this philosophy to the representation of uncertainty in quantitative estimates, it is argued that imprecise probabilities are superior to classical probabilities for IRP.

Physical Description

107 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE95007292

Source

  • Other Information: PBD: Jan 1995

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this report in the Digital Library or other systems.

  • Other: DE95007292
  • Report No.: ORNL/CON--388
  • Grant Number: AC05-84OR21400
  • DOI: 10.2172/28313 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 28313
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc669819

Collections

This report is part of the following collection of related materials.

Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

What responsibilities do I have when using this report?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this report.

Creation Date

  • January 1, 1995

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Jan. 19, 2016, 2:10 p.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this report last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 1

Interact With This Report

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Citations, Rights, Re-Use

Tonn, B.E. & Wagner, C.G. Handling uncertainty in quantitative estimates in integrated resource planning, report, January 1, 1995; Tennessee. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc669819/: accessed November 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.