Critique of ``Expected Value`` models

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Description

There are a number of models in the defense community which use a methodology referred to as ``Expected Value`` to perform sequential calculations of unit attritions or expenditures. The methodology applied to two-sided, dependent, sequential events can result in an incorrect model. An example of such an incorrect model is offered to show that these models may yield results which deviate significantly from a stochastic or Markov process approach. The example was derived from an informal discussion at the Center for Naval Analyses.

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6 p.

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May, W.L. June 1, 1996.

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Description

There are a number of models in the defense community which use a methodology referred to as ``Expected Value`` to perform sequential calculations of unit attritions or expenditures. The methodology applied to two-sided, dependent, sequential events can result in an incorrect model. An example of such an incorrect model is offered to show that these models may yield results which deviate significantly from a stochastic or Markov process approach. The example was derived from an informal discussion at the Center for Naval Analyses.

Physical Description

6 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE96009241

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  • Summer computer simulation conference, Portland, OR (United States), 21-25 Jul 1996

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  • Other: DE96009241
  • Report No.: LA-UR--96-1185
  • Report No.: CONF-960795--1
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 238441
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc669543

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  • June 1, 1996

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • April 21, 2016, 9:42 p.m.

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May, W.L. Critique of ``Expected Value`` models, article, June 1, 1996; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc669543/: accessed September 21, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.