Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption. Final report

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In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site ... continued below

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82 p.

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Ho, Chih-Hsiang September 30, 1992.

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Description

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85 x 10{sup -6}/yr, 1.26 x 10{sup -5}/yr). Also, using these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10{sup 4} years is (1.0 x 10{sup -3}, 6.7 x 10{sup -3}), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.

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82 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE96006635

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  • Other Information: PBD: 30 Sep 1992

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  • Other: DE96006635
  • Report No.: DOE/NV/10461--T49
  • Grant Number: FG08-85NV10461
  • DOI: 10.2172/196582 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 196582
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc668868

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  • September 30, 1992

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  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • May 19, 2016, 6:46 p.m.

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Ho, Chih-Hsiang. Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption. Final report, report, September 30, 1992; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc668868/: accessed September 22, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.