Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options Page: 1 of 10
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LIFE CYCLE COST AND RISK ESTIMATION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OPTIONS
David Shropshire and Michael Sherick,
Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company 6 V L 3J
The Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) Economic and Systems Analysis program has developed a
life cycle cost and risk estimation process to evaluate Environmental Management options for the United States
Department of Energy. The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through the comparative analysis of
two alternative scenarios that have been identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated mixed low-level
waste that is currently stored at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (NEL). The two scenarios that are
evaluated are a Base Case and a Delay Case. The two scenarios are realistic and based on actual data, but are not
intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at the INEL. The paper includes a general
description of each scenario, along with major assumptions that were made to support the analytical process.
Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios with the use of the System Cost Model. The resulting
costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by
pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings associated
with the Delay Case, the cumulative life cycle costs are shown to eventually become much higher than the costs for
the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate
the longer Delay Case schedule. Similarly, life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a relatively new risk
analysis methodology that was developed for the INEL Environmental Management Integration task and has been
adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk
summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment,
storage, and disposal activities. The relative risk associated with the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of
the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to
help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction, and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most
A life cycle cost and risk estimation process has been developed to evaluate various Environmental Management
options for the United States Department of Energy (DOE). The Economic and Systems Analysis program, based at
the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, has been sponsored by the Office of Waste Management, Office of
Planning and Analysis (EM-35) and the Office of Science and Technology, Office of Technology Systems (EM-53).
Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company's (LITCO's) Economic and Systems Analysis (ESA) program has
developed a systems engineering process for analysis of waste management problems. The process is based on the
engineering analysis that LITCO has provided on the Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact
Statement, Site Treatment Plans (STPs) as required under the Federal Facility Compliance Act, and support for the
Work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management under DOE Idaho Operations
Office, Contract No. DE-AC07-
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Shropshire, D. & Sherick, M. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options, article, April 1, 1996; Idaho Falls, Idaho. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc667804/m1/1/: accessed April 20, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.