Ethanol Demand in United States Gasoline Production

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The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OWL) Refinery Yield Model (RYM) has been used to estimate the demand for ethanol in U.S. gasoline production in year 2010. Study cases examine ethanol demand with variations in world oil price, cost of competing oxygenate, ethanol value, and gasoline specifications. For combined-regions outside California summer ethanol demand is dominated by conventional gasoline (CG) because the premised share of reformulated gasoline (RFG) production is relatively low and because CG offers greater flexibility for blending high vapor pressure components like ethanol. Vapor pressure advantages disappear for winter CG, but total ethanol used in winter RFG remains ... continued below

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150 Pages

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Hadder, G.R. November 24, 1998.

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Description

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OWL) Refinery Yield Model (RYM) has been used to estimate the demand for ethanol in U.S. gasoline production in year 2010. Study cases examine ethanol demand with variations in world oil price, cost of competing oxygenate, ethanol value, and gasoline specifications. For combined-regions outside California summer ethanol demand is dominated by conventional gasoline (CG) because the premised share of reformulated gasoline (RFG) production is relatively low and because CG offers greater flexibility for blending high vapor pressure components like ethanol. Vapor pressure advantages disappear for winter CG, but total ethanol used in winter RFG remains low because of the low RFG production share. In California, relatively less ethanol is used in CG because the RFG production share is very high. During the winter in California, there is a significant increase in use of ethanol in RFG, as ethanol displaces lower-vapor-pressure ethers. Estimated U.S. ethanol demand is a function of the refiner value of ethanol. For example, ethanol demand for reference conditions in year 2010 is 2 billion gallons per year (BGY) at a refiner value of $1.00 per gallon (1996 dollars), and 9 BGY at a refiner value of $0.60 per gallon. Ethanol demand could be increased with higher oil prices, or by changes in gasoline specifications for oxygen content, sulfur content, emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCS), and octane numbers.

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150 Pages

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  • Other: DE00002730
  • Report No.: ORNL-6926
  • Grant Number: AC05-96OR22464
  • DOI: 10.2172/2730 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 2730
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc667046

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  • November 24, 1998

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • Aug. 30, 2016, 7:54 p.m.

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Hadder, G.R. Ethanol Demand in United States Gasoline Production, report, November 24, 1998; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc667046/: accessed September 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.