Theoretical description of methodology in PHASER (Probabilistic hybrid analytical system evaluation routine)

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Probabilistic safety analyses (PSAs) frequently depend on fault tree and event tree models, using probabilities of `events` for inputs. Uncertainty or variability is sometimes included by assuming that the input probabilities vary independently and according to an assumed stochastic probability distribution modes. Evidence is accumulating that this methodology does not apply well to some situations, most significantly when the inputs contain a degree of subjectivity or are dependent. This report documents the current status of an investigation into methods for effectively incorporating subjectivity and dependence in PSAs and into the possibility of incorporating inputs that are partly subjective and partly ... continued below

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31 p.

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Cooper, J.A. January 1, 1996.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

Probabilistic safety analyses (PSAs) frequently depend on fault tree and event tree models, using probabilities of `events` for inputs. Uncertainty or variability is sometimes included by assuming that the input probabilities vary independently and according to an assumed stochastic probability distribution modes. Evidence is accumulating that this methodology does not apply well to some situations, most significantly when the inputs contain a degree of subjectivity or are dependent. This report documents the current status of an investigation into methods for effectively incorporating subjectivity and dependence in PSAs and into the possibility of incorporating inputs that are partly subjective and partly stochastic. One important byproduct of this investigation was a computer routine that combines conventional PSA techniques with newly developed subjective techniques in a `hybrid` (subjective and conventional PSA) program. This program (PHASER) and a user`s manual are now available for beta use.

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31 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE96006072

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  • Other Information: PBD: Jan 1996

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  • Other: DE96006072
  • Report No.: SAND--96-0022
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/199089 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 199089
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc666619

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  • January 1, 1996

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  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • April 14, 2016, 1:33 p.m.

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Cooper, J.A. Theoretical description of methodology in PHASER (Probabilistic hybrid analytical system evaluation routine), report, January 1, 1996; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc666619/: accessed October 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.