Fatigue reliability of wind turbine fleets: The effect of uncertainty of projected costs

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The cost of repairing or replacing failed components depends on the number and timing of failures. Although the total probability of individual component failure is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this perception is often far from correct. Different amounts of common versus independent uncertainty can cause different numbers of components to be at risk of failure. The FAROW tool for fatigue and reliability analysis of wind turbines makes it possible for the first time to conduct a detailed economic analysis of the effects of uncertainty on fleet costs. By dividing the uncertainty into common and ... continued below

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29 p.

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Veers, P.S. December 31, 1995.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

The cost of repairing or replacing failed components depends on the number and timing of failures. Although the total probability of individual component failure is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this perception is often far from correct. Different amounts of common versus independent uncertainty can cause different numbers of components to be at risk of failure. The FAROW tool for fatigue and reliability analysis of wind turbines makes it possible for the first time to conduct a detailed economic analysis of the effects of uncertainty on fleet costs. By dividing the uncertainty into common and independent parts, the percentage of components expected to fail in each year of operation is estimated. Costs are assigned to the failures and the yearly costs and present values are computed. If replacement cost is simply a constant multiple of the number of failures, the average, or expected cost is the same as would be calculated by multiplying by the probability of individual component failure. However, more complicated cost models require a break down of how many components are likely to fail. This break down enables the calculation of costs associated with various probability of occurrence levels, illustrating the variability in projected costs. Estimating how the numbers of components expected to fail evolves over time is also useful in calculating the present value of projected costs and in understanding the nature of the financial risk.

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29 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE96004308

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  • 15. wind energy symposium, Houston, TX (United States), 28 Jan - 2 Feb 1996

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  • Other: DE96004308
  • Report No.: SAND--95-3025C
  • Report No.: CONF-960114--7
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 187232
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc664876

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • December 31, 1995

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  • June 29, 2015, 9:42 p.m.

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  • April 13, 2016, 1:52 p.m.

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Veers, P.S. Fatigue reliability of wind turbine fleets: The effect of uncertainty of projected costs, article, December 31, 1995; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc664876/: accessed November 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.