A hazards analysis of a nuclear explosives dismantlement

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This paper describes the methodology used in a quantitative hazard assessment of a nuclear weapon disassembly process. Potential accident sequences were identified using an accident-sequence fault tree based on operational history, weapon safety studies, a hazard analysis team composed of weapons experts, and walkthroughs of the process. The experts provided an initial screening of the accident sequences to reduce the number of accident sequences that would be quantified. The accident sequences that survived the screening process were developed further using event trees. Spreadsheets were constructed for each event tree, the accident sequences associated with that event tree were entered as ... continued below

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10 p.

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Bott, T.F. & Eisenhawer, S.W. July 1, 1995.

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Description

This paper describes the methodology used in a quantitative hazard assessment of a nuclear weapon disassembly process. Potential accident sequences were identified using an accident-sequence fault tree based on operational history, weapon safety studies, a hazard analysis team composed of weapons experts, and walkthroughs of the process. The experts provided an initial screening of the accident sequences to reduce the number of accident sequences that would be quantified. The accident sequences that survived the screening process were developed further using event trees. Spreadsheets were constructed for each event tree, the accident sequences associated with that event tree were entered as rows on the spreadsheet, and that spreadsheet was linked to spreadsheets with initiating-event frequencies, enabling event probabilities, and weapon response probabilities. The probability and frequency distribution estimates used in these spreadsheets were gathered from weapon process operational data, surrogate industrial data, expert judgment, and probability models. Frequency distributions were calculated for the sequences whose point-value frequency represented 99% of the total point-value frequency using a Monte Carlo simulation. Partial differential importances of events and distributions of accident frequency by weapon configuration, location, process, and other parameters were calculated.

Physical Description

10 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE95014005

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  • 1995 International mechanical engineering congress and exhibition, San Francisco, CA (United States), 12-17 Nov 1995

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  • Other: DE95014005
  • Report No.: LA-UR--95-1774
  • Report No.: CONF-951135--4
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 100096
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc627605

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • July 1, 1995

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • Feb. 25, 2016, 6:34 p.m.

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Bott, T.F. & Eisenhawer, S.W. A hazards analysis of a nuclear explosives dismantlement, article, July 1, 1995; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc627605/: accessed November 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.