Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

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An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km{sup 2} area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of ... continued below

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13 p.

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Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G. & Perry, F.V. March 1, 1992.

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An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km{sup 2} area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10{sup {minus}8} to 10{sup {minus}10} yr{sup {minus}1 2}. The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site.

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13 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE92008443

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  • 3. international high level radioactive waste management (IHLRWM) conference, Las Vegas, NV (United States), 12-16 Apr 1992

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  • Other: DE92008443
  • Report No.: LA-UR--92-377
  • Report No.: CONF-920430--64
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-36
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 138347
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc626849

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  • March 1, 1992

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • Feb. 29, 2016, 7:16 p.m.

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Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G. & Perry, F.V. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment, article, March 1, 1992; New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc626849/: accessed November 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.