An investigation of the impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level nuclear waste repository site in unsaturated, fractured tuff; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

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Performance assessment modeling for High Level Waste (HLW) disposal incorporates three different types of uncertainty. These include data and parameter uncertainty, modeling uncertainty (which includes conceptual, mathematical, and numerical), and uncertainty associated with predicting the future state of the system. In this study, the potential impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level radioactive waste disposal site in unsaturated, fractured tuff has been assessed for a given group of conceptual models. This was accomplished by taking a series of six, one-dimensional conceptual models, which differed only by the fundamental assumptions used to develop them, and ... continued below

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74 p.

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Gallegos, D.P.; Phol, P.I. & Updegraff, C.D. April 1, 1992.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 12 times . More information about this report can be viewed below.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

Performance assessment modeling for High Level Waste (HLW) disposal incorporates three different types of uncertainty. These include data and parameter uncertainty, modeling uncertainty (which includes conceptual, mathematical, and numerical), and uncertainty associated with predicting the future state of the system. In this study, the potential impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level radioactive waste disposal site in unsaturated, fractured tuff has been assessed for a given group of conceptual models. This was accomplished by taking a series of six, one-dimensional conceptual models, which differed only by the fundamental assumptions used to develop them, and conducting ground-water flow and radionuclide transport simulations. Complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) representing integrated radionuclide release to the water table indicate that differences in the basic assumptions used to develop conceptual models can have a significant impact on the estimated performance of the site. Because each of the conceptual models employed the same mathematical and numerical models, contained the same data and parameter values and ranges, and did not consider the possible future states of the system, changes in the CCDF could be attributed primarily to differences in conceptual modeling assumptions. Studies such as this one could help prioritize site characterization activities by identifying critical and uncertain assumptions used in model development, thereby providing guidance as to where reduction of uncertainty is most important.

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74 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE92012685

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  • Other Information: PBD: Apr 1992

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  • Other: DE92012685
  • Report No.: SAND--90-2882
  • Grant Number: AC04-76DP00789
  • DOI: 10.2172/138401 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 138401
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc626255

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

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  • April 1, 1992

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • April 13, 2016, 2:40 p.m.

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Gallegos, D.P.; Phol, P.I. & Updegraff, C.D. An investigation of the impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level nuclear waste repository site in unsaturated, fractured tuff; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project, report, April 1, 1992; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc626255/: accessed October 21, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.