Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report

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As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one, Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on ... continued below

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Caldeira, K; Caravan, G; Govindasamy, B; Grossman, A; Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M et al. August 18, 1999.

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As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one, Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more technically feasible than originally anticipated.

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4.6 Megabytes pages

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  • The 24th International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies, Erice (IT), 08/19/1999--08/24/1999

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  • Report No.: UCRL-JC-135414
  • Report No.: YN0100000
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 13772
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc624489

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • August 18, 1999

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • May 6, 2016, 1:36 p.m.

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Caldeira, K; Caravan, G; Govindasamy, B; Grossman, A; Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M et al. Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report, article, August 18, 1999; California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc624489/: accessed December 14, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.