Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts

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We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.

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Carreras, B.A.; Dobson, I.; Newman, D.E. & Poole, A.B. January 4, 2000.

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We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.

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vp.

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OSTI as DE00014056

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  • Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000

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  • Report No.: ORNL/CP-104875
  • Grant Number: AC05-96OR22464
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 14056
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc623629

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  • January 4, 2000

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • Aug. 3, 2016, 1:51 p.m.

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Carreras, B.A.; Dobson, I.; Newman, D.E. & Poole, A.B. Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts, article, January 4, 2000; (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc623629/: accessed October 17, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.