Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report Page: 90 of 338
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a fifteenfold increase in groundwater recharge would raise the
water table about 130 m (Czarnecki 1985), significantly less than
the 200 m minimum distance between the repository and the present
water table, and significantly greater than the -10 m groundwater
fluctuations in this region during the last 30,000 years that were
associated with an estimated 100% increase in precipitation (cf.
Spaulding et al. 1984, Winograd and Szabo 1988). The recharge
values appear to be extreme estimates, which in fact probably
reflect precipitation increases 100%. Although there are a
number of uncertainties in all these processes, overall assessment
provides a clear focus for future research activities.
Final Product: Forecasts of future climate change
The set of all forecasts, together with team-member
assessments of uncertainties, will then be delivered as a final
product to research teams that will be making regional-scale
forecasts.
A.8 SOME CLIMATE MODELING DEFINITIONS
A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL is a mathematical computer model that
is capable of simulating the seasonal cycle of certain weather
variables starting with the planetary scales of atmospheric
behavior and including other scales down to some "resolution".
These models must be run long enough on ;he computer for transient
effects to die out. An annual cycle model typically uses a simple
50 - 75 meter deep ocean for the lower boundary constraint on the
atmosphere. Simulations with these models take a minimum of 15
model years. An imitation of a part of the seasonal cycle can be
had by setting the sun at its January position, for example, and
prescribing the sea surface temperature for that month from data.
While the verisimilitude of this imitation is a matter of dispute
it cuts down computer time by about a factor of 20 and it may be
valuable for certain purposes. Global atmospheric models have to
A.44
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Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R. & Smith, N.R. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report, report, May 1, 1994; Richland, Washington. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc623019/m1/90/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.