Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

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The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input ... continued below

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13 p.

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Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S. & Kanipe, F.L. December 31, 1994.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia`s Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented .

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13 p.

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INIS; OSTI as DE95006817

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  • PATRAM `95: 11. international conference on packaging and transportation of radioactive materials, Las Vegas, NV (United States), 3-8 Dec 1995

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  • Other: DE95006817
  • Report No.: SAND--94-2268C
  • Report No.: CONF-951203--1
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 114501
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc622072

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Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • December 31, 1994

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • April 13, 2016, 12:54 p.m.

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Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S. & Kanipe, F.L. Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis, article, December 31, 1994; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc622072/: accessed December 15, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.