Impact evaluation of a major residential efficiency program: The importance of market transformation Page: 3 of 11
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ended, homes produced by manufacturers and purchased by consumers would be more energy
efficient than they would have been without the program.
When MAP was being designed, HUD was in the process of upgrading its 1976 manufactured
housing efficiency standards. Scheduled to go into effect in October 1994, halfway through MAP's..
planned lifetime, these standards raised the average efficieidy level and triggered a renegotiation of
the MAP contract between utilities and home producers. Utilities argued that they should not pay
manufacturers for the efficiency upgrades that had become mandatory through code changes.
Evaluation Purpose
Bonneville contracted with Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to conduct an evaluation of
MAP's regional impacts. The original purpose of the MAP evaluation was to determine the electrical
energy savings attributable to MAP and the levelized cost of the energy savings acquired under
MAP. The task of identifying control homes, with which to compare MAP homes, was complicated
by regional efficiency programs spanning ten years prior to MAP that undoubtedly increased the
average efficiency of the manufactured housing stock.
The HUD-code upgrade, adopted in 1993, and consequent -negotiations to revise MAP contract
terms placed additional demands on the program evaluation. Specifically, utilities needed infor-
mation about the value of electricity savings from MAP homes relative to the new HUD code, prob-
ably even more than they needed information about program impacts relative to the original HUD
code. Consequently, the evaluation methodology needed to lend itself to extrapolation to conditions
other than those under which the original program functioned.(b)
As a result of these circumstances, the evaluation purpose was expanded. The analysis was tail-
ored to estimate savings under alternative baseline conditions. It was also designed to permit
estimating savings relative to the new HUD code and explore market transformation effects.
Methodology
Sample Design and Data Collection
We conducted our analysis to estimate energy savings by selecting two samples: manufactured
homes constructed to the MAP specifications and homes built prior to MAP. As noted, data were
not readily available on a true control group of homes because 1) MAP applied to all new electrically
heated homes in the region and 2) homes built at any time in the decade prior to MAP were already
influenced by regional efficiency programs. To estimate energy savings, we selected a "baseline"
sample of homes constructed during the three months immediately prior to MAP, but not built under
the regional manufactured home Super Good Cents (SGC) consumer incentives program. The effic-
iency levels of these homes differed enough from MAP homes to allow us to develop our energy use
estimation model, but this sample of homes was not intended to define the efficiency levels of homes
that would have existed without MAP and its precursor programs.
Information collected on MAP and baseline homes included the amount of insulation in the
ceilings, walls, floors, windows, and air ducts, and window and floor area. A telephone survey was
used to collect home characteristics and owner demographic and attitudinal information for both the
(b) Partially to meet these needs, three investor owned utilities (IOUs) contracted with a consultant to conduct a
program evaluation separate from the one that we conducted.2
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Lee, A. D.; Taylor, Z. T. & Sandahl, L. J. Impact evaluation of a major residential efficiency program: The importance of market transformation, article, August 1, 1995; Richland, Washington. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc621431/m1/3/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.