Emission estimates for air pollution transport models. Page: 4 of 14
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EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR POLLUTION TRANSPORT MODELS
DAVID G. STREETS and STEPHANIE T. WALDHOFF
Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory,
9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439, USA
The results of studies of energy consumption and emission inventories in Asia are discussed.
These data primarily reflect emissions from fuel combustion (both biofuels and fossil fuels) and were
collected to determine emissions of acid-deposition precursors (SO2 and NO) and greenhouse gases
(CO2, CO, CH4, and NMHC) appropriate to RAINS-Asia regions. Current work is focusing on black
carbon (soot), volatile organic compounds, and ammonia.
In order for transport and deposition models to be accurate, it is necessary to have reliable
input data on emissions. Accuracy depends both on detailed fuel consumption data and the
application of appropriate emission factors. In addition, in order for emissions data to be meaningful
when gridded for input to atmospheric modelsjthe fuel consumption data must be collected on a
disaggregated geographic basis and apportioned using appropriate surrogate measures, i.e.,
population or production. For example, Chinese national data gridded by population are less accurate
than Chinese provincial data gridded by population. To this end, energy consumption data have been
gathered by RAINS-Asia regions, and, when possible, regional emission factors have been used.
In the RAINS-Asia Phase I Project, emissions from the use of commercial fuels were
extensively documented (Arndt and others, 1997). Recent work has added the important component
of biofuels (Streets and Waldhoff, 1998). Throughout the developing world, energy for cooking and
heating is still often derived from the combustion of traditional biofuels: fuelwood, crop residues,
dried animal waste, and charcoal. It has been estimated that approximately 15% of energy demand
worldwide is supplied by these biofuels; in Asia the contribution is 25%. The per capita usage of
traditional biofuels is declining (Figure 1), as they are supplanted by commercial fuels: kerosene, oil,
natural gas, coal, and electricity; however, population is increasing in the developing countries,
especially in the rural areas where biofuels are mainly used, such that total biofuel use is presently
stable or only slowly declining. It was found that a significant correlation exists betweenper capita
GDP and biofuel consumption as a percent of total energy use (Figure 2). This relationship, with a
correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.90, is expressed by the equation:
% Biofuel Use = 40,738 (GDP/cap)'7
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Streets, D. G. Emission estimates for air pollution transport models., article, October 9, 1998; Illinois. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc620748/m1/4/: accessed April 24, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.