Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

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The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many ... continued below

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Medium: P; Size: 549 pages

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Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C. et al. September 1, 1998.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).

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Medium: P; Size: 549 pages

Notes

INIS; OSTI as DE00001024

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  • Other Information: PBD: 1 Sep 1998

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  • Report No.: SAND98-0365
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/1024 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1024
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc618673

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  • September 1, 1998

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  • June 16, 2015, 7:43 a.m.

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  • April 12, 2016, 1:09 p.m.

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Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C. et al. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, report, September 1, 1998; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc618673/: accessed September 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.